Summary: Costing Brexit

The UK parliament and the European Parliament still have to approve the withdrawal agreement. Brexit is likely to reduce immigration from European Economic Area (EEA) countries to the UK, and poses challenges for UK higher education, academic research and security. Following Brexit, EU law and the EU Court of Justice will no longer have supremacy over UK laws or its Supreme Court, except to an extent agreed upon in a withdrawal agreement. The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 retains relevant EU law as domestic law, which the UK could then amend or repeal. In another day of high political drama, MPs on Tuesday first voted 329 to 299 in favour of the government’s 110-page Withdrawal Agreement Bill, signifying support in principle for the Brexit deal Johnson recently brokered with the EU.

The EU hasn’t been intractable, though. It offered additional legal assurances on the Irish backstop. It has also suggested it would be open to tweaking the political declaration governing the future relationship if that will help the Brexit deal get majority support in the UK. The EU approved two Brexit extensions. And, even to Johnson, EU leaders have said they’re willing to negotiate if he can bring forward a plan that will offer a legitimate and workable alternative for the backstop.

Though for how long — three months, which is what the UK wants, or something longer — is still undecided. A second referendum wouldn’t be guaranteed to produce a different result, either.

The European Union and the United Kingdom reach a draft withdrawal agreement. British Prime Minister Theresa May asks the EU to postpone Brexit until 30 June 2019. But this does not rule out the possibility that the UK will leave without a deal on 29 March. First, the other 27 EU member states must unanimously approve Mrs May’s request.

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Keeping you up to date on Brexit

Again today, Mr Corbyn has insisted that he has the right to form a government before anyone else. But remember, even to get to this point requires the small issue of the current administration falling and a majority of MPs gathering behind another leader. Currently, it’s not even guaranteed that Boris Johnson would lose a no confidence vote. And even if he did, the splits ravaging parliament make it almost certain that no other MP would be able to command the confidence of the house.

“There were votes in parliament just before we rose for summer that I thought would stop a no-deal Brexit and actually were defeated,” he said. Michael Gove, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, de facto deputy to the prime minister, said that the government will spend “whatever it takes” to prepare for a no-deal Brexit. That’s because it was actually set up behind closed doors by the previous Chancellor Philip Hammond, someone who was and still is fervently against no deal. What’s more, speaking to government sources, it is also clear that this is a genuine exercise to identify possible high-risk industries that could suffer from the likely economic shock that a no-deal Brexit would bring.

Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party, which advocates leaving the EU without a formal agreement, came top of the European vote. But there was a strong showing from pro-EU parties, in particular, the Liberal Democrats, who want to reverse Brexit altogether. In June, the same civil servant, Sir Mark Sedwill, said government and public services were in “pretty good shape” to cope with a no-deal Brexit at the end of October. He added that in the private sector the level of preparedness varied from sector to sector.

  • The withdrawal agreement also contains a provision known as the backstop, but more on that later.
  • May and Johnson both resisted a second referendum, saying the people spoke loudly in 2016 and voted to leave.
  • Second, the UK proposals would operationally only be worked out in detail by the EU and the UK, or in the UK unilaterally, during the fourteen-month transition period.
  • The other 27 EU member states indicate their willingness to allow the UK to postpone its departure (the UK had been due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019).

A second referendum, or “confirmatory public vote” as it’s also being called, would put the Brexit question back to the people. brexit Advocates for a second referendum say that during the 2016 referendum, the consequences and realities of Brexit were opaque.

In March the European Commission said it had completed its no-deal preparations, having released its Contingency Action Plan for Brexit in December. In a no-deal scenario, it confirms that the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and Britons on the continent would no longer be protected at European level — and lays out basic plans to regulate financial services, air transport, road haulage, customs and exports, and climate policy. The heightened uncertainty amid a winter of British political turmoil forced the UK and the EU, as well as people and businesses on both sides of the English Channel, to step up no-deal preparations ahead of the original March deadline — plans that were revived in the run-up to October 31. Although many expect another extension to the UK’s EU membership, Johnson’s government is fiercely opposed to such a scenario.

Parliament approved the new agreement, but rejected plans to pass it into law before the 31 October deadline, and forced the government (through the ‘Benn Act’) to ask for a third Brexit delay. Withdrawal is advocated by Eurosceptics and opposed by pro-Europeanists, both of whom span the political spectrum. The UK joined the European Communities (EC) in 1973, {http://fincake.ru/stock/news/53949|https://www.klerk.ru/materials/2019-10-22/491504/|https://www.vladtime.ru/allworld/734896} with continued membership endorsed in a 1975 referendum. In the 1970s and 1980s, withdrawal from the EC was advocated mainly by the political left, e.g. in the Labour Party’s 1983 election manifesto. From the 1990s, the eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party grew, and led a rebellion over ratification of the 1992 Maastricht Treaty that established the EU.

Should the UK leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement, which would put in place a transition period, it will be treated as a non-EU country for customs purposes as of the date of its withdrawal. Odds are dramatically shortening on a general election in early November, potentially on 1 November, the day after Boris Johnson insists the UK will брексит leave the EU. That has prompted Jeremy Corbyn to write to Whitehall’s top civil servant, Cabinet Secretary Sir Mark Sedwill, demanding a block on Brexit during an election campaign and accusing Mr Johnson of an abuse of power to force no deal. For Brexit enthusiasts, this is a necessary preparation for that October “do or die” deadline.

And the ruthless and controversial sacking of one of Chancellor Sajid Javid’s closest aides, media adviser Sonia Khan, by the prime minister’s chief Brexit strategist Dominic Cummings over a suspicion of disloyalty – which she strongly denies – underlines just how determined Downing Street is to deliver Brexit on 31 October at all costs, deal or no deal. In a defiant interview, Boris Johnson told Sky News that if the mandate of the 2016 referendum was frustrated and the UK was stopped from leaving the EU on 31 October, that would damage people’s trust in politics. The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator wrote in the Sunday Telegraph that the backstop “is the maximum amount of flexibility that the EU can offer to a non-Member State” and admitted he is “not optimistic” about avoiding a no-deal scenario. After a more positive tone from the continent following meetings with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, Mr Barnier’s firm stance is likely to feel like a setback to Number 10.

It’s prompted former Tory cabinet ministers to accelerate their plans to try to block no deal, rather than giving their leader some leeway to work on the EU. They will now join forces with opposition parties next week in a bid to pass laws to bind the Prime Minister’s hands.

EU team to begin work on post-Brexit ties on November 16

In a claim that will no doubt be disputed by Boris Johnson, Jean-Claude Juncker has told Sky News a hard border will return on the island of Ireland if Britain leaves the EU without a deal. The SNP has belatedly come round to the idea of bringing down Boris Johnson’s government and installing the Labour leader as an interim prime minister with brexit the sole intention of delaying Brexit and calling a general election. But with his self-imposed deadline of 31 October now only a month away, he is under pressure from some cabinet ministers to compromise and do a deal with Brussels to avoid a no-deal Brexit. How can this be? Pay little heed to the idea the PM has a way around the Benn Act.